nEUswletter 23/02/2020
- European Horizons Bangor
- Feb 23, 2020
- 5 min read
The pro-birth policy of Victor Orban in Hungary
By Lise Faliu
With Hungary facing a significant aging population, Viktor Orban has implemented a surprising natalist policy in order to increase the Hungarian birth rate, rather than resorting to immigration.
But what is the cause of this demographic decline?
Since 1981, the Hungarian demography has been going through a great decline due to several factors. Indeed, not only the aging of the population, the emigration of the graduate population abroad, but also the increase in deaths per year, against which the number of births fails to increase the national population alarmed the country's leaders. Consequently, the balance is negative.
As the national daily Hungary Today reported “Hungary’s population has fallen by 40,097 a year. The number of live births was only 91,577, while the number of deaths amounted to 131,674. The 41,000 loss is equivalent to that of the disappearance of a middle-sized town in one year. (However, with a population of 41,000, this would be among Hungary’s Top 25 largest settlements.) The country hasn’t experienced such a dramatic decline since 1998-99.”
Massive immigration against a declining national population?
Consequently, Orban defends that it is today a massive immigration from the countries of Asia and Eastern Europe which comes to make up for this demographic loss : “There are fewer and fewer children born in Europe. For the West, the answer (to that challenge) is immigration. For every missing child there should be one coming in and then the numbers will be fine… .Hungarian people think differently. We do not need numbers. We need Hungarian children… Migration for us is surrender”.
Difficult times call for strong measures…
Viktor Orban had previously announced major economic plans favoring families who could potentially give birth: “In February, Mr Orban's government announced generous policies intended to boost the birth rate, including a tax holiday for women who bear four or more children, a Ft10m ($ 33,500) loan to families that is forgiven if they have three children, and cash incentives for large families to buy seven-seater vehicles.”
But last Sunday he didn’t stop there, making the international press talk a lot all week. As the New York Times noted: "on Sunday, Mr. Orban announced one of his most ambitious plans yet: Any Hungarian woman with four or more children will no longer pay income tax. Anything to avoid immigration.”
What about the future?
The national newspaper affirms that the low fertility rate, coupled with the emigration continues leading consequently to that a Hungarian child on 6 was born in another country of the European Union, the conclusion is brutal but is likely to be real: the fall in population should continue in the years to come. “In the best case scenario, the population will stabilize at around 9 million people. But, a more realistic number is closer to 7.75 million. In the worst-case scenario, this number could drop as low as 6 million people by 2070”.
Sources:
Far-right attack in Germany
By Thomas Lezeau
Last Wednesday night in Hanau (Germany), a shooting took place. A 43-year-old German National attacked two shisha bars in the centre of the 100 000 inhabitants’ town before fleeing the scene. Eight people were reported dead at first with a ninth person reported to have succumbed to his injuries hours after the attack. After a seven-hour hunt, police officers found the suspect’s body alongside the body of his 72-year-old mother. It was rapidly put forth by authorities that these attacks had a xenophobic motive as it was stated by the interior minister of the federal state of Hesse. It was furthermore stated by federal prosecutor Peter Frank that the gunman had uploaded “video messages and a kind of manifesto”. It was later confirmed that a video of the gunman explaining why he was about to commit his acts had been uploaded to YouTube before he had acted. The authorities’ theory was rapidly confirmed by the International Centre for study of Radicalisation and Political Violence as it stated that the video uploaded by the gunman contained “far-right narratives.”
On the day following the events, Germany’s far right party AFD (Alternative for Deutschland) published a tweet seemingly to distance itself from the gunman, accusing mainstream media of making a link between the events and AFD’s politics. However quite controversially the tweet also contained the link to the video that had previously been deleted from YouTube. This sparked large reactions from all the other political parties including from the governing majority such as defence minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer that accused AFD of having Nazis amongst their ranks. CDU MP Matthias Hauer designated them as “spiritual arsonists”. This terrorist attack could therefore have had a more important political impact that it was first anticipated.
The forthcoming introduction of the UK's points-based immigration system
By Charles Elie-Martin
Despite the formal exit of the UK from the EU on the 31st January 2020, a transition period is still running until the 31st December 2020. At the end of that period, the first concrete effects will be endured by the individuals. One area of major interest for both British and foreign people, namely immigration, will be subject to important reforms. Indeed, on the 19th February, the Home Office stated intention to establish a points-based immigration system for all aliens willing to enter the territory.
Why is such a system required by the Government?
The first objective displayed by the Government is to take back control of the UK borders. This purpose is assuredly in line of Brexit, following the UK's will to recover its full sovereignty in areas thus far delegated to the EU. The Home Office alleged that the principle of free movement was not consistent with the British people needs. The rationale behind this statement is quite simple. The UK is pleased to welcome migrants who would contribute to the British economy; the European free movement of persons is allowing EU citizens to enter the territory because they are EU citizens, not because they would bring any specific contribution to the UK; therefore the UK is willing to move the criteria for admission from nationality to skills. As a consequence, EU and non-EU citizens will be treated equally.
How will the system work?
This system will be based on the allocation of points depending on the satisfaction of different criteria. In order to be eligible for application, a person willing to enter the British territory will have to reach a total of 70 points. A table provided by the Home Office is listing several criteria. Thus, if the applicant speaks English at the required level, he will be allocated 10 points. Moreover, if the applicant can demonstrate that he has a job offer from an approved sponsor, he will get 20 points. Likewise, the criteria of the salary earned and the education qualification are used.
While undermining the principle of the free movement of persons, the new UK's points-based immigration system will cause several difficulties, at least at the beginning. Indeed, given the amount of EU workers and students living in the UK, the number of applications will be massive. Consequently, the Government services are likely to be overwhelmed, imposing months of expectation for applicants. In comparison, a long-established similar process in Australia imposes between 8 to 10 months as processing time for visa, foreshadowing a much longer waiting within the UK immigration services.
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