Is Brexit done? What’s next for the EU and the UK

By Alexandre Capel

EU Council staff members remove the UK flag from the European Council building in Brussels on Brexit Day, January 31, 2020. Olivier Hoslet/AFP via Getty Images

During the year, the UK – still temporarily subject to EU law – and the EU will negotiate the terms of their future relations. The task that they will be facing seems therefore extremely complex especially since the UK wishes to wrap this thing up in only 11 months in order to move forward.

On the night of January 31st at 11 pm London time, the final-count-down came to an end as the United Kingdom (UK) left the European Union (EU). After 47 years of EU membership and three endless years of bitter division within the country the formal parting happened. The 23rd June 2016 referendum during which a 52% majority voted to leave the EU has finally become a reality.

But to say that the British are “getting Brexit done” as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has claimed ad nauseam during his campaign is rather optimistic. Although the day may be historic and symbolic it does not bring about any great changes for the moment. Indeed, in order to avoid an abrupt break, both parties agreed beforehand that a transition period is to be set until the end of 2020.

Two contrasting visions on both sides of the English Channel

On Monday, just three days after the D-Day Britain and the EU were already at work, setting the stage for months of bickering and disagreements on how to refashion their economic and political ties.

Speaking in Brussels, Europe’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier made things clear by setting out EU’s goals and rules for the next negotiations to come. He reminded Johnson that he has already agreed on some points last year especially on EU rules concerning subsidies and standards. Moreover, he is insisting that the UK will be able to access to the single market without tariffs and quotas if they commit to preventing unfair competition. By doing so, Brussels is trying to prevent the creation of a Singapore-on Thames on its doorstep, a deregulated economy and a new competitor that would undercut EU prices and standards. Finally, Barnier said that the European Court of Justice would act as the ultimate and final arbiter in case of EU laws conflicts during this period.

In response, Prime Minister Boris Johnson adopted a radically more offensive tone by threatening that the UK would walk away from talks if the EU tried to impose their rules. Even if the Prime minister’s vision is going to be more clearly detailed next week, the latter announced that he will be in favour of a Canada style free-Trade deal with no tariffs rather than an Australian one which would require tariffs but no alignments with any Brussels regulations.

Negotiation’s strategic topics

The gulf between the UK and the EU seems significant as both parties had set out contrasting goals concerning various subjects for post-Brexit trade talks. Among those subjects, there are some for which people may get in heated arguments.

First of all, the EU wants the UK to respect the environmental rules currently in force. However, Johnson made his position clear by saying that “there is no need for a free trade agreement to involve accepting EU rules on (…) the environment or anything similar, any more than the EU should be obliged to accept UK rules”. The later rather prefer a Canadian-style agreement where both parties have more flexibility in terms of environmental regulations as long as this one doesn’t imply unfair competition.

Another hot Brexit topic is fishing. Indeed, since the beginning of the debate on leaving the EU fishermen are constantly on the frontline. On the morning of February, the 1st, just after the divorce they were the first to be directly affected by the Brexit’s effects. Indeed, on this day the Anglo-Norman island of Guernsey has decided to prohibit French boats from accessing its waters until a new protocol is found. With Brexit, the UK will not be bound to follow the EU common fisheries policy anymore and will be able – as they did in Guernsey – to prohibit foreign boats from accessing its waters and fix quotas. On this point, Brussels said that it will not make any concessions because the 27 member States want to maintain the current access and quotas.

Finally, the EU wants the European Union Court of Justice to play a role in dispute settlement after the conclusion of the final deal. Boris Johnson on his side is fiercely opposed to this idea because it would mean that the UK is still subject to EU law.

Bibliography:

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Norris, P. (2020). Brexit Is Just the Beginning. [online] Foreign Affairs. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2020-01-31/brexit-just-beginning [Accessed 8 Feb. 2020].

Boffey, D. and Rankin, J. (2020). Michel Barnier: Johnson agreed last year to stick to EU rules. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/03/michel-barnier-boris-johnson-eu-rules-brexit [Accessed 8 Feb. 2020].

Stewart, H., Mason, R. and Boffey, D. (2020). UK and EU set out contrasting goals for post-Brexit trade deal. [online] the Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/03/uk-and-eu-set-out-contrasting-goals-for-post-brexit-trade-deal [Accessed 8 Feb. 2020].

Courrier international. (2020). Royaume-Uni – UE. Deuxième phase du Brexit : les sujets qui risquent d’échauffer les esprits. [online] Available at: https://www.courrierinternational.com/article/royaume-uni-ue-deuxieme-phase-du-brexit-les-sujets-qui-risquent-dechauffer-les-esprits [Accessed 8 Feb. 2020].

You can also access a French version through this link: http://europeanhorizonstoulouse.fr/is-brexit-done-whats-next-for-the-eu-and-the-uk/?fbclid=IwAR25dLXdXn5eEesY3uZ3ohBLe0i9mHu0v-limAARbWKEiCc_wjyw197Kjl4